Poll Shows Texans Less Gloomy about Economy
By L.M. Sixel, Houston Chronicle Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News
Mar. 22 - The state may be sputtering along in a jobless recovery, but Texans are beginning to feel a bit more confident about the U.S. economy, a new poll indicates.A year ago, 76 percent of those polled rated the U.S. economy as fair or poor. This year, the Texas Poll found that those with a gloomy outlook fell to 65 percent.
"It's moving in the right direction, but it's not where you want it to be," Tim Hopper, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Houston, said in reference to the U.S. economy.
Texans are feeling more optimistic about their personal lives as well, with 35 percent reporting they're better off today than they were a year ago. That's an improvement over the 28 percent who made that claim a year ago.
The new Toyota plant in San Antonio and the major expansion of Texas Instruments in Dallas are recent bright spots in the state's economy. But the state has suffered through a prolonged downturn in the technology sector, which has been especially harsh on Dallas and Austin.
And the Houston economy, which remains highly dependent on the energy industry, still hasn't benefited from the upturn in energy prices. Energy companies are still reluctant to beef up exploration and production because many worry the high prices may not be sustainable.
Though job growth -- both in the state and nationally -- is nothing to brag about, other national economic indicators such as gross domestic product, industrial production or the manufacturing index of inventories and sales appear to be moving rapidly in the right direction, said Hopper.
At some point, job growth will improve, something Hopper believes will occur later this year. Increased productivity can only go so far until manufacturers hire extra people to fill the extra orders they're selling, he said.
Texans also appear to be more optimistic.
The survey of 1,000 adults between Feb. 12 and March 3 also found that 59 percent believe they'll be financially better off this time next year. That's despite the fact that raises have been smaller-than-normal because companies don't feel much competitive wage pressure, Hopper said.
That optimism squares with the upbeat mood that John Markson has noticed.
"There's still a lot of uncertainty in the air -- like the war in Iraq," said Markson, managing director of Towers Perrin, a human resource consulting firm in Houston. But his clients, who are among some of Houston's biggest employers, seem willing to take on more projects, take more risks and hire more people.
"It's making me feel better about our business," he said.
That optimism comes off a difficult 2003, a year in which the economy slowed to a crawl as everyone waited for the war to begin and then worried about its impact.
Markson believes the growing optimism is fueled by a survivor mentality: "If I can make it through 2003 and I'm still working, I can make it through almost anything."
Some, however, are still struggling.
"The jobs have just disappeared," said a Houston industrial controls systems engineer. "They've just dried up."
The 52-year-old, who asked not be identified to protect his family's privacy, said he moved his wife and two children to Houston only to join Enron just before it collapsed. It's been 16 months since he has worked, he said, even though he's been answering every newspaper and online advertisement he sees. In all, he estimates he's sent out at least 600 resumes.
But even he is hopeful. He's had two recent job interviews.
The Texas Poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points
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