Home Page California Economic Forecast Sees Recession on Its Way Out By Deborah Crowe, Ventura County Star, Calif. Knight Ridder/Tribune Business News Mar. 25 - California's economy is slowly but steadily climbing out of the recession, according to the Anderson Forecast at the University of California, Los Angeles, which slightly brightened its 2004 jobs outlook in a forecast being released today. Gains in state and national employment, industrial output and demand for goods indicate a true expansion has emerged in the past six months, according to Michael Bazdarich, a senior economist for the Anderson Forecast. "There's decent growth taking place, though it won't be enough to give us a boom," Bazdarich said Wednesday in advance of the forecast's quarterly economic conference today. "It won't be enough to give us the 200,000-a-month job growth Washington wants, but it's enough to keep the economy moving." Bazdarich looks for the national payroll job growth to proceed at about 125,000 a month in 2004, with the pace picking up in 2005. While the Anderson Forecast does not make specific projections for Ventura County, senior economist Chris Thornberg said the more optimistic outlook for Los Angeles County should spill over to Ventura County. "Your economy is now healthier than a year ago," Thornberg said, noting recently revised state figures show the county ended 2003 with 2.7 percent annual job growth instead of a 1.8 percent loss, as initially projected. Anderson economists now project 1 percent nonfarm job growth for California and 0.7 percent for the United States, up from 0.9 and 0.6, respectively, in their December report. Forecasters also see the state's annual unemployment rate in 2004 dropping to 6.2 percent from an earlier projection of 6.6 percent. California ended last year with an average 6.7 percent jobless rate. That should translate into continued modest growth in Southern California, which was hurt much less by the 2001 recession than Northern California. The revised employment figures also showed Orange County and the Inland Empire had better-than-expected growth. Los Angeles County lost more jobs than expected but should grow 1.2 percent this year, Thornberg said. Growth in the region would be stronger if not for expected layoffs in government and education, stemming from the state budget crisis. Those losses will likely overshadow growth in other job sectors. Ventura County officials warned Tuesday that 600 county jobs could be cut in the next fiscal year, in addition to 400 vacancies being left unfilled. Thornberg estimates Los Angeles County could lose 6,000 to 7,000 state and local government jobs. The cuts could throw off the job growth rate in each county by half a percentage point, he said. In summarizing the forecast, economists said: "2004 should be thought of as a `fix it and get ready year.' The state will get control of its finances, households won't spend so hard and some of the upward pressure on home prices will ease as more homes are built and some of the highly impacted areas (such as the Bay area) could see outward migration. "As was noted in the last forecast, 2005 and 2006 will see better numbers with payroll growth at 2 percent or better. Those numbers may not sound so impressive but they will be the best since 2000." More News: 3-25-04 Economic surge stems market's plunge 3-25-04 Economy Grows at Solid 4.1 Percent Pace 3-25-04 Economy outpaces sluggish job market 3-25-04 Fed Expected to Keep Interest Rates Low 3-25-04 Gasoline Prices Threatening Retail Sales 3-25-04 Greenspan defends free trade, productivity 3-25-04 High-end consumers are spending big 3-25-04 Inflation Dents Treasury Prices 3-25-04 NY Fed Warns of Potential Deficit Fallout 3-25-04 Treasury's Snow: US job count missing self-employed 3-25-04 U.S.: Economy Is Growing at Solid Rate 3-25-04 US existing home sales rose in February 3-25-04 U.S. economy ends '03 on strong note 3-25-04 Weekly US jobless claims rise slightly to 339,000       Financial News

 

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